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Presidential Election Update

September 10, 2024

Five major events reshaped the 2024 U.S. presidential race so quickly that polls were unable to gauge the impact of each new development. While Harris had strong initial polling, the race remains tight with 57 days to go.

  • June 27- President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance led many Democrats to call on him to drop out of the race.
  • July 13- The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.
  • July 21- President Joe Biden drops out of the race.
  • August 5- Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee.
  • August 23- Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ends his campaign for the presidency and endorses Trump.

Why it matters: The effect of Biden dropping out of the race has been nothing short of monumental. Polling data below compare the state of the race on July 21 (the day President Joe Biden announced his decision to drop out) and today, Sept. 10.

  • Since July 21, Vice President Harris has gained an average of 4.4% across all seven swing states in under two months. She now leads, or ties, albeit within the margin of error, in five of these seven key states.
  • While polling is an extremely useful tool, in 2016 and 2020, it proved to be inaccurate and underestimated Trump’s support in both presidential races. Click the link below for a more in-depth analysis of this year’s polling and what may happen if Trump again is underestimated. RealClearPolitics Poll Analysis

PCM Grahph 9.10 Final
Source: RealClearPolitics.

National Polling: On Sunday, a national poll of likely voters by The New York Times and Siena College demonstrated that the race is a virtual tie, with Former President Trump up one point over Vice President Harris.

  • This poll, which produced a similar result in late July, is just one more data point demonstrating that the race is within the margin of error and a virtual tie. Read more about The New York Times/Sienna College poll here.

The bottom line: Absentee ballots will be mailed later this month, and the 2024 election will be officially underway.

What’s next: Tonight’s debate between Harris and Trump is the first between the candidates. Polling results post the debate may offer the best indicator of where the race stands before Election Day.

Please contact James Montfort (Jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

 

Contact 

James Montfort
Manager, Government Relations
202.448.0857
jmontfort@crefc.org
Illustration of Minnesota, Vermont, Connecticut, Michigan
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2024 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Presidential Election Update
September 10, 2024
Five major events reshaped the 2024 U.S. presidential race so quickly that polls were unable to gauge the impact of each new development.

News

Rumors: Basel Endgame Re-Proposal Imminent 

September 10, 2024

Federal banking regulators are expected to release a significantly revised re-proposal of the Basel Endgame Capital Rules in the near term.

Michael Barr, the Fed Vice Chair of Supervision leading the Basel effort, will be speaking today at 10 a.m. ET at Brookings where he “will preview the regulators’ revised proposal and explain the next steps.”

  • It is rare for regulators to provide substantive policy detail on an active rulemaking unless it accompanies some sort of public release. Barr’s appearance could mark the debut of the re-proposal.

What they’re saying: While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has publicly testified he expects broad and material changes to the original proposal, the rumors have intensified in the past week of an imminent re-proposal.

  • Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been highly critical of many provisions in the proposal.
  • Some policy analysts speculate that the revised proposal could provide more relief to the largest banks although the impact on >$100 billion regional banks remains difficult to predict.

What’s next: CREFC will closely analyze any new re-proposal, reviewing it against comments CREFC submitted in January 2024.

Contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) with questions. 

Contact 

Sairah Burki
Managing Director, Head of Regulatory
Affairs & Sustainability
703.201.4294
sburki@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2024 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Rumors: Basel Endgame Re-Proposal Imminent
September 10, 2024
Federal banking regulators are expected to release a significantly revised re-proposal of the Basel Endgame Capital Rules in the near term.

News

FHFA Proposes 2025-2027 Enterprise Housing Goals

September 10, 2024

On August 22
, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) proposed single-family and multifamily housing goals for 2025-2027 that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) would be required to meet on an annual basis. Comments on the proposed rule are due Oct. 28, 2024.

Background: Since 2010, FHFA has established annual housing goals for Enterprise purchases of single-family and multifamily mortgages consistent with the requirements of the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992.

The most recent amendments to the housing goals regulation include:

  • A 2021 rule to establish benchmark levels for the 2022–2024 single-family housing goals and the 2022 multifamily housing goals; and
  • A 2022 final rule to establish benchmark levels for the 2023–2024 multifamily housing goals.

Why it matters: According to FHFA, these goals ensure that the Enterprises, through their mortgage purchases, responsibly promote equitable access to affordable housing.

What they're saying: In a statement accompanying the proposal’s release, FHFA Director Sandra Thompson stated:

“Given persistent challenges in the housing market, FHFA is proposing benchmark levels that reflect these dynamics and continue to ensure that the Enterprises remain focused on supporting key affordable housing segments while operating in a safe and sound manner. The goals proposed today offer a meaningful and realistic calibration that takes into account current and forecasted economic factors.”

The 2025-2027 proposed housing goals include separate categories for single-family and multifamily mortgages on housing affordable to low-income and very low-income families.

By the numbers: The multifamily benchmark levels are summarized below:

  • Low-Income Goal: 61% of units affordable at 80% of area median income (AMI).
  • Very Low-Income Goal: 14% of units affordable at 50% AMI.
  • Small Multifamily Low-Income Subgoal: 2% of units in five-to- 50-unit multifamily properties affordable at 80% AMI.
Please contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) with any questions.
 

Contact 

Sairah Burki
Managing Director, Head of Regulatory
Affairs & Sustainability
703.201.4294
sburki@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2024 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
FHFA Proposes 2025-2027 Enterprise Housing Goals
September 10, 2024
On August 22, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) proposed single-family and multifamily housing goals for 2025-2027 that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) would be required to meet on an annual basis.

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