Presidential Election Update
September 10, 2024
Five major events reshaped the 2024 U.S. presidential race so quickly that polls were unable to gauge the impact of each new development. While Harris had strong initial polling, the race remains tight with 57 days to go.
- June 27- President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance led many Democrats to call on him to drop out of the race.
- July 13- The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.
- July 21- President Joe Biden drops out of the race.
- August 5- Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee.
- August 23- Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ends his campaign for the presidency and endorses Trump.
Why it matters: The effect of Biden dropping out of the race has been nothing short of monumental. Polling data below compare the state of the race on July 21 (the day President Joe Biden announced his decision to drop out) and today, Sept. 10.
- Since July 21, Vice President Harris has gained an average of 4.4% across all seven swing states in under two months. She now leads, or ties, albeit within the margin of error, in five of these seven key states.
- While polling is an extremely useful tool, in 2016 and 2020, it proved to be inaccurate and underestimated Trump’s support in both presidential races. Click the link below for a more in-depth analysis of this year’s polling and what may happen if Trump again is underestimated. RealClearPolitics Poll Analysis
Source: RealClearPolitics.
National Polling: On Sunday, a national poll of likely voters by The New York Times and Siena College demonstrated that the race is a virtual tie, with Former President Trump up one point over Vice President Harris.
- This poll, which produced a similar result in late July, is just one more data point demonstrating that the race is within the margin of error and a virtual tie. Read more about The New York Times/Sienna College poll here.
The bottom line: Absentee ballots will be mailed later this month, and the 2024 election will be officially underway.
What’s next: Tonight’s debate between Harris and Trump is the first between the candidates. Polling results post the debate may offer the best indicator of where the race stands before Election Day.
Please contact James Montfort (Jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.