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News

Midterm Outlook

March 10, 2026 

The midterm election outlook is shifting rapidly with retirements, updated congressional maps, and primary losses.

House of Representatives: These retirement announcements have come as President Donald Trump and Republican leadership try to preserve a narrow House majority.

  • To date, 56 US House members are retiring instead of running for their current seat. 
  • 35 Republicans have announced their retirement, compared to 21 Democrats. In recent years, more members of the party in power have headed for the exits.
  • This list includes those who lost their primary election, or are running for higher office which include the Senate, Governorship, and offices of Attorney General and County Judge.
  • The president’s party usually loses congressional seats in midterm elections.

Recent Notable Retirements

  • Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA-48) announced last week that he will be retiring due to the redrawn maps in California. His seat became a genuine toss-up after California redrew its districts. Kamala Harris would have won the new district over Donald Trump by three points in 2024. It previously was a safe Republican seat.
  • Rep. Burgess Owens (R-UT-4) also announced last week that he will be retiring. 
    • Utah’s congressional map has gone through many different versions for this election year due to a battle at the state level between Republicans and Democrats. 
    • A judge recently declared that it was too late to change the map, leaving a safe Democratic seat in the Salt Lake City area. 
    • Owens decided to retire instead of running in this new Democratic leaning seat or run in a nearby district against another member of Congress in the primary. 
  • Rep. Tony Gonzalez (R-TX-23) announced he will no longer run for re-election. 
    • Gonzalez was serving his third term, but following a 2026 primary runoff challenge and a House Ethics Committee investigation into an affair with a former staffer, he dropped his re-election bid last week. 
    • Without Gonzalez in the race, Brandon Herrera will likely be the GOP’s nominee, giving Democrats a shot at flipping this traditionally safe red district.

Texas Senate Race

  • On the Democratic side, State Senator James Talarico won the nomination to be his party’s nominee, beating Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (D-TX-30) by a margin of 52-48%, avoiding a runoff. 
  • While the Republican side is a bit more messy, incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) has been forced into a runoff election with current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. 
  • Cornyn garnered 42% of the vote, while Paxton was just shy of 41%. As neither candidate breached the 50% mark, there will be a runoff election on May 26. President Trump has been publicly musing about endorsing a candidate prior to the runoff.

Why it matters: The messy primary on the Republican side forces the candidates to spend time and money attacking each other over the next two months instead of focusing on the general election. 

Democrats have dubbed this the dream scenario for their general election prospects. A perfect storm of negative approval ratings on President Trump and competitive elections in stronghold GOP states could give Democrats a slim but real chance at controlling both chambers of Congress next year.

  • Talarico has been widely viewed as Democrats best chance to take the seat, and infighting on the GOP side only helps them make their case. 
  • Putting Texas in play forces national Republicans to spend more money protecting their eventual nominee this fall.

Montana Senate Race 

  • Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) announced his surprise decision to retire last week just hours before the filing deadline was about to pass. 
  • He quickly endorsed U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana Kurt Alme, who filed to run for Daines’ Senate seat as a Republican just minutes before the deadline closed on Tuesday evening. 
  • This move raised eyebrows across Capitol Hill as Sen. Daines in effect froze the primary field for his handpicked successor. 
  • Another member of Congress, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp-Perez (D-WA-3) publicly stated her frustration with the move following his retirement announcement.

One of the reasons Daines cited for his retirement announcement was the desire to avoid an expensive race by keeping big Democratic names out of the mix including former Democratic Senator Tester and former Democratic Governors Brian Schweitzer and Steve Bullock. 

“A second midterm for a president, you have natural political headwinds. And my goal here was to try to make this race as least expensive as possible, given there’s a lot of expensive races on the map,” Daines said in an interview. “This was all about preventing this race from escalating into another $200-300 million race.” 

Source: Semafor

Why it matters: The general election this fall in Montana is not expected to be competitive as the state has trended more red, with current Senator Tim Sheehy (R-MT) winning his election by seven percentage points in 2024. 

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

Contact 

James Montfort
Manager,
Government Relations
202.448.0857
jmontfort@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Midterm Outlook
March 11, 2026
The midterm election outlook is shifting rapidly with retirements, updated congressional maps, and primary losses.

News

CRE Securitized Debt Update

March 10, 2026

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

Three transactions totaling $2.6 billion priced last week:

  1. BMARK 2026-V21, a $1.2 billion conduit backed by 41 five-year loans secured by 68 properties from Goldman, Citi, Deutsche, Barclays, and BMO.
  2. BMO 2026-5C14, a $766.7 million conduit backed by 33 five-year loans secured by 95 properties from a group of nine lenders led by BMO.
  3. BX 2026-OPTM, a $617 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, five-year loan (at full extension) for Blackstone to acquire a portfolio of nine multifamily properties totaling 2,936 units across six states.

By the numbers: YTD 2026 private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totaled $35.8 billion, down 1% from the $36.3 billion for the same period last year.

Conduit Spreads Widen Out Over Conflict in Middle East

  • Conduit AAA spreads were wider by 10 bps to +78, while A-S spreads were wider by 5 bps to +105.
  • Conduit AA spreads were wider by 10 bps to +135, while A spreads were wider by 20 bps to +195.
  • Conduit BBB- spreads were wider by 15 bps to +450.
  • SASB AAA spreads moved from +3 to +7 bps, depending on property type, to a range of +104 to +172.
  • CRE CLO AAA spreads were wider by 10 bps to +145/+150 (static/managed); BBB- spreads were wider by 75 bps to +350/+360 (static/managed).

Agency CMBS

  • Agency issuance totaled $3.5 billion last week, comprising $3 billion in Freddie Multi-PC and K transactions, $344.4 million in Fannie DUS, and $115.3 million in Ginnie transactions.
  • Agency issuance for YTD 2026 totaled $34.7 billion, 41% higher than the $24.6 billion recorded for the same period in 2025.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

Contact 

Raj Aidasani
Managing Director, Research
646.884.7566
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
CRE Securitized Debt Update
March 11, 2026
Three transactions totaling $2.6 billion priced last week.

News

Capital Markets Update Week of 3/4

March 4, 2025

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown is nearing the one month mark with little progress made on re-opening the department.

Why it matters: The DHS funding lapse began February 14 amid Democratic pushback on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding. The bill is the last remaining piece of FY 2026 government appropriations.

On Sunday, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) stated that he would like to fund some parts of DHS, but not all.

"Let’s just pass those funding bills. Let’s confine the ICE and CBP reform discussion just to those two agencies and fund the others. Thus far, Republicans have blocked those efforts. We want to fund TSA, FEMA, Coast Guard and CISA,” Kaine said during an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Source: The Hill

Yes, but: The partial funding of the department is likely to be a non-starter. A funding bill of this nature failed in the Senate just last week.

Over the past three weeks, Democratic leadership and the White House have traded reform demands back and forth but have yet to find a compromise. It remains to be seen if a deal to fund everything excluding ICE and CBP is a viable path forward.

  • Amid the shutdown of the Department, the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem was fired by President Trump on March 5
  • The final straw was reportedly the spending of $220 million on an ad campaign that prominently featured Sec. Noem. 
  • Noem, stated in her testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee that this ad campaign was approved by President Trump himself. Following her testimony, Trump denied approving the campaign and announced shortly thereafter that Noem would no longer lead the department.
  • Trump then announced that Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) will take over the department effective March 31. A change in leadership could help bolster the agencies credibility, but a deal on funding the department still seems distant.

The bottom line: Essential DHS employees continue working without pay, while key programs are seeing disruption. We will continue to track developments and share updates.

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

Contact 

James Montfort
Manager,
Government Relations
202.448.0857
jmontfort@crefc.org
The information provided herein is general in nature and for educational purposes only. CRE Finance Council makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, validity, usefulness, or suitability of the information provided. The information should not be relied upon or interpreted as legal, financial, tax, accounting, investment, commercial or other advice, and CRE Finance Council disclaims all liability for any such reliance. © 2026 CRE Finance Council. All rights reserved.
Noem Out Amid DHS Shutdown
March 11, 2026
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown is nearing the one month mark with little progress made on re-opening the department.

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