Special Elections Recap
April 8, 2025
Special April 1 elections in Florida and Wisconsin attracted national focus because they were seen as a litmus test for voter sentiment toward the new administration and its early policies.
- Republicans won both deep-red congressional seats in Florida, though by slimmer margins.
- The Wisconsin Supreme Court seat went to a liberal candidate by a margin of 10 points.
The Florida special elections were held to fill vacancies in the U.S. House of Representatives’ 1st and 6th congressional districts.
- Republican Jimmy Patronis won Florida’s 1st District with 57% to Democrat Gay Valimont’s 42%, a 15-point margin—down sharply from Matt Gaetz’s 32-point win in 2024.
- In the 6th District, Republican Randy Fine won 57% to Democrat Josh Weil’s 42.7%, cutting the GOP margin from 33 points in 2024 to just 14. Both Democrats significantly overperformed, signaling a shift in these deep-red districts.
These results may indicate a new trend showing that Democratic candidates can make significant gains in districts that have been reliably Republican. Both parties are parsing this data to see if it signals a potential shift in voter dynamics ahead of the 2026 midterms.
However, in the near term, these victories bolster the Republican majority in the House to 220-213, providing a slight advantage for advancing the GOP’s legislative agenda.
Go deeper: Recent federal workforce reductions have significantly impacted Florida's 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, both of which have substantial federal employment due to numerous military installations and government facilities. Campaign ads focused on recent DOGE cuts and Elon Musk’s role in the government.
The 1st District encompasses the Florida Panhandle, home to several military bases such as Eglin Air Force Base, the region’s largest installation.
- This area has a high concentration of military and civilian federal employees. Given the district's reliance on military installations, recent defense cuts have led to significant local job losses.
The 6th District includes areas such as Daytona Beach and Volusia County, regions with notable federal employment, particularly in Veterans Affairs (VA) services.
- The VA has recently proposed eliminating over 70,000 positions nationwide, which has raised concerns about the delivery of services to veterans in this district. With approximately 60% of residents receiving benefits through Veterans Affairs, Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid, the proposed cuts have heightened anxieties among constituents.
In Wisconsin’ Supreme Court election, the single seat up for election attracted considerable attention due to its potential impact on the court's ideological balance. Republicans have been concerned that the court’s liberal majority could overturn Wisconsin’s congressional maps, which currently favor the GOP 6(R) to 2(D).
- Wisconsin judicial races are non-partisan and the candidates were referred to in national media as “liberal” and “conservative.”
- Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford, identified with the liberal bloc, defeated Waukesha County Circuit Judge and former State Attorney General Brad Schimel, a conservative. Crawford's victory maintains the court's 4-3 liberal majority.
- The election saw unprecedented spending, with total expenditures approaching $100 million. A significant portion of this funding came from billionaire Elon Musk, who contributed over $25 million in support of Schimel and hosted a rally supporting Schimel.
- Despite the spending, liberal Susan Crawford won by 10 points, framing the race as “the people vs Elon Musk.” Notably, President Trump himself did not get involved in the race, though he endorsed the conservative candidate.
The bottom line: Elon Musk had a visible impact on the April 1 elections both through his funding GOP campaigns and his personal appearances ahead of the vote.
Democrats may use these special election victories as a playbook for the upcoming midterms. However, the so-called DOGE effect on individual elections may look very different in late 2026 than it does today.
Please contact
James Montfort at (
Jmontfort@crefc.corg) with any questions.