Senate Race Updates: Sinema Retirement, California Results
March 12, 2024
Last week saw several key developments that promise to impact Senate races in several states. Most notably, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) announced she will not run for re-election.
Why it matters: The GOP has a very favorable 2024 Senate map with three Democrats up for re-election in states that Trump won twice.
Arizona Senate: Sinema bows out.
First-term Senator Krysten Sinema (I-AZ) announced that she would be retiring from the Senate.
- Sinema was a member of the House from 2013-2019 and flipped the open Senate seat in 2028.
- While she modeled herself as a bipartisan dealmaker and left the Democratic party in 2022, she continues to align with Democrats in the Senate.
- Rep. Reuben Gallego (D-AZ) had already announced his campaign for the Senate seat, which fueled concerns that Sinema would run as an independent, split Democrat votes and effectively hand the race to the Republicans. This decision quells those fears and sets up the general election matchup.
Where the race stands: Gallego will likely face Republican Kari Lake in November. The race is currently rated as a Toss-Up by Cook Political Report.
- Rep. Gallego is a member of the CPC (Congressional Progressive Caucus) and represents the Phoenix area.
- Kari Lake, a former news anchor and outspoken Trump supporter, ran for Governor of Arizona in the recent cycle, losing to Katie Hobbs in a close race.
California Senate
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Republican Steve Garvey advanced to the November election for California’s open Senate seat.
- California runs a “jungle primary” system where every candidate runs against each other, regardless of party, with the top two vote earners advancing.
- If Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) had beaten Garvey, the race could have been very expensive ($50 million+) despite an assured Democratic win. Schiff will likely cruise to victory in deep blue California.
Primary strategy: Schiff began running what were akin to general election ads against Steve Garvey during this primary. This drew criticism from Rep. Katie Porter who claimed that Schiff essentially “rigged” the primary to ensure that Garvey would prevail.
- Garvey spent very little ($1.4 million) compared to Schiff’s ($11 million) campaign. Some credit Schiff’s linking Garvey candidacy to Trump as actually boosting the former baseball player’s appeal.
- A Democrat v. GOP contest allows Schiff to attack Garvey instead of a fellow Democrat. It also allows the Democratic party to target funds in other races where it is more sorely needed (Arizona, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania).
Texas Senate
Congressman Colin Allred won the Democratic party primary and faces Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in the fall.
Some analysts have flagged the Texas senate race as the best chance for Dems to flip a Senate seat. But that doesn’t mean a win by Democrats is highly expected.
The news here is that Rep. Allred avoided a runoff allowing him to re-allocate resources to the general election immediately. Polls show a virtually tied race between Cruz and Allred.
History: The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. However, Texas is moving ever so slightly to the left, and this could be the election where a Democrat prevails against an unpopular incumbent.
Everywhere else, the Democrats are playing defense and just trying to hang onto seats they hold.
Please contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.