Presidential Election Polling Reveals Tight Race
October 8, 2024
With 28 days left to the Presidential Election, polls in swing states suggest the race for the White House remains a toss-up. This is quite a different scenario from late-July when President Joe Biden was the Democratic Party’s nominee.
The table below notes three key snapshots in the race, the day President Biden dropped out, polling post Labor Day, and today, with less than a month to go.
Source: Real Clear Politics, link to full list of polls here.
Vice President Kamala Harris gained 4.2% in the seven swing states from July-September, but her momentum has stalled since and ever so slightly reversed in some states.
- Nevada is the only state where Harris has continued her momentum since September, with a +0.5 % gain. Since then, former President Donald Trump has gained +1.6 % in Georgia, +0.7% in Wisconsin, and + 0.5% in Michigan.
- North Carolina and Arizona have been slight changes to each candidate’s polling, but not enough to measure a change in voter sentiment.
- The most important swing state has always been Pennsylvania due to its 19 electoral college votes, the highest of any swing state. Polling in the state has remained even since September, as the rolling average remains a tie.
- The polling website 538 gives Pennsylvania an 18% chance of determining the winner of the election, demonstrating just how crucial this battleground state is to both campaigns.
Why it matters: As every state’s polling is within the margin of error, the race remains a true toss-up.
- This is different from late-July when Biden was the nominee and Republicans appeared to be clear frontrunners.
- Harris’ candidacy has brought the race back to dead even.
Contact James Montfort (Jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.