Election Roundup: House and Senate Update
December 10, 2024
With the final race in California now called, the 2024 federal election season is officially concluded. Republicans will control the House with a narrow majority of 220- 215 after a net loss of two seats.
Why it matters: Republicans will start the 119th Congress with the slimmest House majority since the Great Depression. This margin is expected to tighten as members of the House depart to join the Trump administration.
Thus far, three Republican reps will likely leave in early January:
- Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigned from the House last month after being nominated to be the U.S. Attorney General. He withdrew from consideration for the position shortly after being nominated but does not intend to return to Congress.
- Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) plans to resign to become President Trump’s ambassador to the U.N., pending confirmation by the Senate.
- Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) will resign to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor.
These vacancies will leave the GOP with a narrow majority of 217-215, until the vacated seats are filled by a special election.
- If one Republican lawmaker is absent during that time period, or votes against the party, a vote could fail in the face of unified Democratic opposition.
- Unlike the Senate where a governor can appoint a temporary replacement, House vacancies are always filled by special election.
Senate Results
Although Republicans narrowly retained their majority in the House, they performed better in the Senate, flipping Democratic seats in Ohio, Montana, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. The result: the GOP has a 53-47 majority.
- This margin allows the GOP to lose up to three Senators’ votes, as the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance is allowed in a 50-50 scenario.
- President Trump’s cabinet nominees and federal judges will have a wider berth during Senate consideration, but legislation will still largely be limited by the 60-vote filibuster threshold.
- Democrats’ Senate silver lining includes their successful defense of seats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada, four states that voted for President Trump.
Presidential Results
President Trump's decisive victory secured wins in all seven swing states, boosted his vote share in every state, and enabled him to win the popular vote for the first time in his three election campaigns. This marked the strongest performance by a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush's re-election in 2004.
The Details: President Trump increased his support in traditionally Democratic states like New Jersey, New York, and California.
While Vice President Harris still won these states, the vote was much closer than expected. Here is how support for the Democratic presidential candidate changed from the previous election:
- California, Harris’ home state, dropped from a 29% winning margin in 2020 to 20% in 2024.
- New York dropped from a 23% margin in 2020 to 12% in 2024.
- New Jersey dropped from a 16% margin to 6%, bringing it into consideration as a swing state in future elections.
Go deeper: For the full map breakdown of how each state voted and the current popular vote tracker click here.
What they’re saying: Republicans have control of the House, Senate and Presidency. However, the narrow margins in the House and the filibuster rules in the Senate may limit how much of their agenda they can push through and how quickly.
Please contact James Montfort (Jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.