Election Night Guide
November 5, 2024
On this Election Day, as the nation awaits the results of its presidential election and various races for seats in Congress, remember that not all states may have final vote counts because of factors such as processing mail-in votes. There may be, however, some early indicators that suggest which party is faring well even before the final ballot has been accounted for.
Below are a few early signs to look for to ascertain which party is doing well before all the results are tallied.
President: Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump need at least 270 electoral votes to win, and most paths to victory run through the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
North Carolina is a competitive swing state this year, as President Trump only won it by just over 74,000 votes or a 1.4% victory margin in 2020. Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
- Watch the vote counts in the suburbs of Charlotte, Raleigh, and Greensboro to see how well Harris’ message is resonating.
- If Harris runs up the vote count enough in these populous centers of the state, she has a chance to win. However, if Trump eats into her margins in the cities and the surrounding suburbs, it could spell trouble for the Democrats.
Florida counts its votes very quickly and its results should tell us much about where the candidates stand going into the final stretch. Polls close at 7:00 PM ET.
- While Trump is expected to win the state for a third time (2016 by 1.2% and 2020 by 3.3%) the margin of victory may be an early barometer of national sentiment.
- Trump’s margin and his performance in large population centers, like Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville will be highly scrutinized. The results will be another indicator of how effectively the Harris campaign is making inroads with the voters she needs to win the White House. A better-than-expected performance by Harris in the sunshine state could suggest Harris does well in other states.
House: Republicans currently control the House of Representatives with a 220-212 margin and three vacancies. Democrats need to flip just five seats to regain control of the chamber going into the next Congress.
The Cook Political Report rates 22 seats as toss ups, which is less than 5% of the total seats in the chamber. Most election predictions have the odds of control for each party at 50-50.
Virginia’s 2nd and 7th Congressional District results could prove to be early indicators of how each party is performing nationally, and where control of the House may be headed.
- These two swing districts were reliably Republican prior to the 2018 midterms when Democrats won both amid a wave of anti-Trump sentiment. However, Republicans retook the 2nd district in 2022 and came close to winning in the 7th district.
- Retiring Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) has held the district since 2018 and is retiring to run for Governor. She won in 2022 by a margin of 52-47%.
- The 2nd district is held by Republican Jen Kiggans who took office after the 2022 midterms, defeating Democrat Elaine Luria by a margin 51-48 %.
Senate: The Senate is controlled by the Democrats with a margin of 51-49.
- The tight margin gives Republicans the clear advantage in retaking the chamber.
- With a guaranteed pickup in West Virginia and likely pickup in Montana, the GOP is expected to control the chamber, but the question is by what margin.
The Senate elections in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all rated as toss ups by Cook Political Report. If any of these seats is won by a margin greater than 3%, it will be viewed as an early indicator of success for the corresponding party nationally.
Ohio: Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is trying to win re-election in a state that voted for President Trump by an 8% margin in 2020. If Brown holds on to his seat or even loses by a narrower-than-expected margin, it will be a good sign for Democrats across the country.
The bottom line: The election could take days to be settled. In 2020 the election wasn’t officially called until Saturday, Nov. 7, four days after Election Day.
Mail-in voting reached a historical high in 2020, when 46% of all votes tallied, or around 72 million votes, were cast via mail, amidst the pandemic.
- The percentage of mail-in ballots is expected to have declined from 2020, however large-scale mail-in voting will cause some inevitable delays in declaring a winner.
- States like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don’t begin counting ballots until Election Day. For a full list of how each state processes its mail-in ballots, click here.
Be patient, as a similar waiting period is likely this time around. Click here to see when the AP called each state last cycle.
Please contact James Montfort at Jmontfort@crefc.org with any questions.