Election Fundraising Update
October 22, 2024
Last week’s third-quarter political campaign fundraising data gives us insight as to where things stand financially for Democrats and Republicans with two weeks to go until Election Day.
- In the race to control the House, Senate, and Presidency, the Democrats are raising significantly more money than their Republican counterparts.
Why it matters: Fundraising impacts a candidate’s ability to get their message out to voters but doesn’t always predict victory in high-profile races. You can read more at this link, which offers some analysis of how often the highest-spending candidate wins the election.
On the presidential campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris and her affiliated committees have raised $1 billion since entering the race in July, while former President Donald Trump and his affiliated committees raised $430 million in roughly the same time period.
The figures above do not include the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee, which raised $68.7 million and $40.4 million respectively over the same Q3 period.
- Harris and the Democrats have $404 million cash on hand, compared to Trump and the Republicans who have $295 million.
- This shortfall for Republicans could potentially affect their decision-making down the final stretch.
In the 10 seats that will decide the makeup of the Senate, Democrat candidate campaigns brought in nearly 2.5 times the amount that Republican candidates raised in Q3.
- Democrat campaigns have collected $203 million, compared to the Republicans’ $83 million.
- For a full list of the breakdown of the fundraising outlook for each race, click here.
In 23 of the most competitive House races rated by Cook Political Report, the Democrats have experienced a fundraising boom since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
- Democrats in these races have raised nearly double compared to their Republican opponents, an average of $2.3 million to $1.25 million.
- For a more detailed analysis, click here.
Does money equal a victory? Democrats outraising and outspending Republicans in federal elections is not a new phenomenon, and it is far from predictive in a close race.
- In 2020, there was a large amount of media coverage regarding Senator Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) re-election race. His Democratic challenger that year, Jamie Harrison, raised $130 million, the most ever for a Senate candidate. However, Sen. Graham coasted to re-election, winning with a margin of 54% to Harrison’s 44%, even though he was outraised and outspent by a margin of nearly three to one.
- Similarly in 2016, Hillary Clinton vastly outraised and outspent Trump in a losing campaign. Biden outraised Trump and won the 2020 election.
How they are spending it: It’s no surprise that the presidential campaigns are spending heavily on the seven swing states.