Analysis: Biden Pre-Dropout Polling
July 23, 2024
As covered above, President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he would exit the 2024 presidential race, ending weeks of speculation about his candidacy in the wake of a poor performance at the June 27 debate.
However, polling results in the race remained more stagnant than might have been expected.
- Former President Trump had gained on President Biden in every swing state, except North Carolina, but only by an average of 1.1%.
- These gains in polling for Trump and subsequent doubts about President Biden’s health led him to drop out of the race on Sunday.
- As the standard margin of error is 3% to 5%, this polling increase for Trump had pushed Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina out of margin-of-error territory.
- Trump, who held an average lead of 1.5%, nationally on June 27, now has a 3% lead. Still, Trump’s increased polling average in the swing states (1.1%) runs behind his increase in national polls (1.5%).
Source: RealClearPolitics
There have been a few names mentioned along with Vice President Harris as possible replacements to Biden on the Democratic ticket.
- Other potential Democratic candidates include Gov. Josh Shapiro (PA); Gov. Andy Beshear (KY); Gov. Roy Cooper (NC); Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (MI); Gov. J.B. Pritzker (IL); and Gov. Gavin Newsom (CA). Click here for more info.
- By the numbers: In a national poll conducted last week by CBS, it appears that Harris is the best equipped to win out of all possible Democratic contenders mentioned. However, Trump still leads her in a hypothetical matchup by 3 percentage points, as he garners 51 % of the vote, while she receives 48%.
- Swing-state polling with hypothetical matchups is sparse, but additional data is expected in the coming weeks. The popular polling website 538 has the latest.
However, with President Biden’s exit from the race, there is very little precedent to go on from here. If Vice President Harris wins the nomination at the Democratic Convention, she will have around 75 days to run as the party’s nominee against Former President Trump.
The bottom line: The true test of presidential polling will be in mid- September. By then, Harris or whoever the Democrats officially select as their nominee will be evident and voters will begin to make their final decision.
Please contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.