2024 Election Spending Skyrockets
April 30, 2024
The 2024 Election is shaping up to be one of the most expensive campaign seasons in history, right on the heels of a 2020 election that involved a record level of spending.
Why it matters: Election spending is skyrocketing, from $6.5 billion in 2016 to $14.4 billion in 2020 and an expected $15.9 billion in 2024. The amount raised by each party, how early funds are raised, and how quickly they are spent can tell us a great deal about the standings of various political races, beyond the polling.
How will this affect the races?
While there is a large amount of media focus on the financial advantage for Democrats, money does not always result in a victory.
- In 2016, former Senator and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton outraised former President Donald Trump $769 million to $433 million and lost the race for the presidency.
- In 2020, President Joe Biden won at the ballot box and was successful as a fundraiser, drawing $1.5 billion to Trump’s $1 billion.
However, a lack of funds can limit a candidate’s ability to travel, make expensive ad-buys, and organize voter registration and engagement. Fundraising for down-ballot Senate and House races can be even more crucial, as presidential campaigns receive much more media coverage.
Where does the 2024 Presidential election stand?
The race will once again come down to the following seven states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada. All of these states were decided by a margin of 3% or less in the 2020 election, with Arizona and Georgia being decided by less than 0.5%. Current polling has Biden and Trump within 5% of each other in these states.
Both of the Presidential campaigns as well as Congressional campaigns are raising record amounts. The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) raised $90 million in March, while President Trump and the RNC raised $65.6 million.
- The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) had $192 million cash on hand as of the end of March.
- The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) had $93 million cash on hand late last month.
The narrative on fundraising has largely focused on Biden’s significant and likely insurmountable cash advantage over the Trump campaign.
- The Trump campaign spent $3.6 million on legal fees in March alone.
- In March, Biden spent $29.2 million, compared with $6.3 million spent in February.
- A majority of the Biden campaign’s spending was driven by large ad-buys after the State of the Union address, when Biden began his “month of action” travel to swing states.
- Biden’s spending may be paying dividends. On March 1, Biden was trailing Trump by 2% in national polls and as of April 30, the two candidates are virtually tied.
Congressional Outlook:
- Pollsters and pundits have ever so slightly favored the Democrats to retake the House, while the Senate leans Republican with a very favorable GOP map. The combined national campaign committees of Republicans have raised $375 million, while the Democrats have raised $462 million.
- Senate: The amount raised for Senate Democratic candidates is $447 million and $273 million for the Republicans, a total of $734 million from both parties for 34 seats.
- Currently, Democratic House candidates have cumulatively raised $528 million, and Republican candidates have raised $574 million.
The chart below displays each party’s committee fundraising totals as well as their spending.
Source: https://ballotpedia.org/Party_committee_fundraising,_2023-2024
House and Senate Observations
- The House majority will likely come down to 22 races rated as toss ups, and at this point, most political analysts believe it to be a coin flip. For an analysis and outlook on the races read here.
- Seven seats in the Senate are rated as true “toss ups” and the combined amount of money raised in those races likely will top $300 million. The toss-up seats, their fundraising, and their polling is outlined in the chart below.
- Polling in Senate seats is conducted less frequently than for the Presidential election, and while Democrats lead in those races, the margins are expected to tighten.
House Fundraising
What does this mean: The election to control the House and the Senate is going to be extremely close and any majority won by either party will likely only be by a handful of seats.
- Presidential Race: The race is currently a tie and will once again come down to seven states that were decided by margins of 3% or less in 2020.
- House and Senate: Both chambers will be controlled by a narrow majority, regardless of which party gains control.
- 2024: This election will be the most expensive ever, and based on current polling is a toss-up at both the presidential and congressional level. Political spending continues to skyrocket cycle after cycle.
If you live in or near any of the seven swing states, you will almost certainly see and hear the results of all this fundraising this fall. Massive ad-buys are expected to surge after this summer’s party nominating conventions.
Contact James Montfort (Jmonfort@crefc.org) with any questions.