Update: Special Elections
April 1, 2025
Florida will hold special elections to fill vacancies in its 1st and 6th Congressional Districts today. Both of these seats have been reliably Republican for decades, but observers point to trends that suggest Democrats may outperform.
Why it matters: Control of the House currently sits on a razor’s edge with Republicans holding the tightest majority since the Great Depression. These races have received outsized media attention, as they may indicate how the Trump administration’s early policy actions are being received by the public.
- A Democratic victory in either seat is extremely unlikely, but a significant underperformance by the GOP could indicate the public is souring on the Trump administration’s actions.
- Concern over special elections came to a head last week when President Donald Trump withdrew Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) nomination to serve as his ambassador to the U.N. President Trump later posted on Truth social, stating it was “essential that we maintain EVERY Republican Seat in Congress.”
- Many political observers took this to mean that Republicans were worried about defending Rep. Stefanik’s seat in upstate New York or losing one of the special elections today in Florida.
By the numbers: Both Florida races have drawn significant attention and funding with Democratic candidates is vastly outraising Republicans, $15.7 million to $3 million.
Florida's 1st Congressional District: This district, covering Florida's western Panhandle, is a Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+19.
- Jimmy Patronis (R): Former Florida Chief Financial Officer.
- Gay Valimont (D): Athletic trainer and gun violence prevention activist.
Florida's 6th Congressional District: The 6th District includes Flagler, Lake, Marion, Putnam, St. Johns, and Volusia counties. This seat is also a Republican stronghold, but less so than the 1st district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7.
- Randy Fine (R): State senator from the 19th district.
- Josh Weil (D): Middle school teacher and political newcomer.
Bottom Line: The results of these elections will be spun by both parties no matter the outcome, but both seats are heavily Republican districts and are expected to remain under GOP control.
- A Democratic victory or even a tight Republican win in either seat will be viewed as a signal the public is souring on the Trump administration.
- Alternatively, a comfortable Republican victory would signal that the GOP is in a better political environment than many had thought.
Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.
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